This is the continued saga of “how to build a game projection”. I’d recommend reading the three previous articles of the series before you continue reading this post: The goal in this article is to lay the groundwork for the final game projection model. In the previous article I built the in-season model. Today IContinue reading “Game projection model – Pre-season Model (Part IIIA)”
Tag Archives: sGAA
Talent distribution – Contract value (Part V)
This is the fifth part of the talent distribution series. You can find the parts here: Percentiles, Predictability, Forwards vs. Defenders and goaltending. In this post I will focus mainly on contracts and contract value. The data set All contract data for this article is from capfriendly.com, and the data goes back to the 2013-2014Continue reading “Talent distribution – Contract value (Part V)”
Talent distribution – Forwards vs. Defenders (Part III)
In this piece of the talent distribution series, I will compare forwards and defenders. I recommend reading Part 1 and perhaps Part 2 first. How the sGAA model is designed Before we get started it’s important to understand how my sGAA model is calibrated. It’s designed to describe goal differential at the team level. So,Continue reading “Talent distribution – Forwards vs. Defenders (Part III)”
Talent Distribution – Predictability (Part II)
I didn’t really plan to discuss predictability in this series about talent distribution, since the two are not directly connected. However, I was asked about it, and it does open up for a good discussion about descriptive vs. predictive modelling. I recommend reading part 1 before you read this piece. Descriptive vs. Predictive models TheContinue reading “Talent Distribution – Predictability (Part II)”
Talent distribution – Percentiles (part I)
This piece will be the first in a series about talent distribution. I’ve wanted to write about this for a while, but I haven’t really had the time until now. In this article I will focus on skaters and how their “talent” is distributed across percentiles. What is talent? The first thing we have toContinue reading “Talent distribution – Percentiles (part I)”
Hockey-Statistics
Introduction The idea with this post is to explain all my statistical work up until this point. Most of it has already been explained in previous articles, but I want to collect it all in one place. And also add some insight on the thought process behind the models. I’m hoping to write this asContinue reading “Hockey-Statistics”
Projecting future results – Goaltender edition
Abstract: In the last article, I tried to project future performances of the NHL skaters. In this piece I will add goaltender projections, so we can see how the first draft of the projection model performs. What if all goaltenders were average? Before we get to the goaltender projections, let’s try to assume every goaltenderContinue reading “Projecting future results – Goaltender edition”
Is NHL a strong link league?
Abstract: The goal of this piece is to discuss if it’s more important to have elite players (strong link) or great depth (weak link). To do so, I will look at talent distributions. How is the talent/impact spread out across the players? Do the elite players have a relatively larger impact on the game? I’mContinue reading “Is NHL a strong link league?”
Applying Arena Effects to goalies and skaters
Abstract: In the previous article, I found some differences in the shot tracking data depending on the arena. I therefore defined the Arena Effect as the difference between shot quality at home and on the road. Those Arena Effects can be downloaded here. Now, I want to add these effects to my sGAA model, whichContinue reading “Applying Arena Effects to goalies and skaters”
Hockey-Statistics 