Game Projections
Here’s how the model compares to other public models: Here’s the log loss for each team: And here’s the log loss of each team compared to the imlplied odds: Game projections can be found daily on Twitter. All games will be updated here from time to time (Updated April 15th 2021).
Goaltenders have no apparent influence on shot misses!
Introduction In this article I basically seek answers to these two questions: Can a goaltender impact shot misses? How does this affect current goaltender metrics? But before we get to that point, we need to answer a wide variety of questions. In this piece I’m solely looking at 5v5 data, and the shot information isContinue reading “Goaltenders have no apparent influence on shot misses!”
Hockey-Statistics
Introduction The idea with this post is to explain all my statistical work up until this point. Most of it has already been explained in previous articles, but I want to collect it all in one place. And also add some insight on the thought process behind the models. I’m hoping to write this asContinue reading “Hockey-Statistics”
Game Projections – January 22nd 2021
Originally posted on Hockey-Statistics:
Here’s how the model compares to other public models: Game projections will be updated here daily. All games so far can be found here. The home ice advantage has been cut in half due to empty seats. I will reexamine this in a few weeks.
Season Preview: West Division
Components: Strengths and weaknesses Player impacts: Age and Experience: The model also adjusts for age and experience. Here’s the goal adjustments for these effects. The numbers are based on 82 games. Data from http://www.Evolving-Hockey.com and http://www.capfriendly.com
Season Preview: Central Division
Components: Strengths and weaknesses Player impacts: Age and Experience: The model also adjusts for age and experience. Here’s the goal adjustments for these effects. The numbers are based on 82 games. Data from http://www.Evolving-Hockey.com and http://www.capfriendly.com
Season Preview: East Division
Components: Strengths and weaknesses Player impacts: Age and Experience: The model also adjusts for age and experience. Here’s the goal adjustments for these effects. The numbers are based on 82 games. Data from http://www.Evolving-Hockey.com and http://www.capfriendly.com
Season Preview: North Division
Components: Strengths and weaknesses Player impacts: Age and Experience: The model also adjusts for age and experience. Here’s the goal adjustments for these effects. The numbers are based on 82 games. Data from http://www.Evolving-Hockey.com and http://www.capfriendly.com
Season Projections 20/21 – Updated
The previous season projections can be found here. There are a few important things to be aware of when interpreting the model. Important notes and updates: The previous projection had a mistake in the goaltender projections, but this is fixed now. The updated model is based on lineups (including taxi squad) from http://www.capfriendly.com/depth-charts. Players onContinue reading “Season Projections 20/21 – Updated”
Season Projections – First draft
Here’s my first season projections. The plan is to do an analysis of each division in greater detail, but there are still a few changes I would like to make. I will get back to that later. Updated data: Before we get started, its important to note that I have updated the data behind theContinue reading “Season Projections – First draft”
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