Introduction The idea with this post is to explain all my statistical work up until this point. Most of it has already been explained in previous articles, but I want to collect it all in one place. And also add some insight on the thought process behind the models. I’m hoping to write this asContinue reading “Hockey-Statistics”
Author Archives: Lars Skytte
Game Projections – January 22nd 2021
Originally posted on Hockey-Statistics:
Here’s how the model compares to other public models: Game projections will be updated here daily. All games so far can be found here. The home ice advantage has been cut in half due to empty seats. I will reexamine this in a few weeks.
Season Preview: West Division
Components: Strengths and weaknesses Player impacts: Age and Experience: The model also adjusts for age and experience. Here’s the goal adjustments for these effects. The numbers are based on 82 games. Data from http://www.Evolving-Hockey.com and http://www.capfriendly.com
Season Preview: Central Division
Components: Strengths and weaknesses Player impacts: Age and Experience: The model also adjusts for age and experience. Here’s the goal adjustments for these effects. The numbers are based on 82 games. Data from http://www.Evolving-Hockey.com and http://www.capfriendly.com
Season Preview: East Division
Components: Strengths and weaknesses Player impacts: Age and Experience: The model also adjusts for age and experience. Here’s the goal adjustments for these effects. The numbers are based on 82 games. Data from http://www.Evolving-Hockey.com and http://www.capfriendly.com
Season Preview: North Division
Components: Strengths and weaknesses Player impacts: Age and Experience: The model also adjusts for age and experience. Here’s the goal adjustments for these effects. The numbers are based on 82 games. Data from http://www.Evolving-Hockey.com and http://www.capfriendly.com
Season Projections 20/21 – Updated
The previous season projections can be found here. There are a few important things to be aware of when interpreting the model. Important notes and updates: The previous projection had a mistake in the goaltender projections, but this is fixed now. The updated model is based on lineups (including taxi squad) from http://www.capfriendly.com/depth-charts. Players onContinue reading “Season Projections 20/21 – Updated”
Season Projections – First draft
Here’s my first season projections. The plan is to do an analysis of each division in greater detail, but there are still a few changes I would like to make. I will get back to that later. Updated data: Before we get started, its important to note that I have updated the data behind theContinue reading “Season Projections – First draft”
Building the game projection model
Abstract: In the previous article I laid the groundwork for my game projection model. Now I will use the actual starting lineups and add in season adjustments using the ELO ranking principle. The data used in this article is from the 2016/2017 season to the 2019/2020 season. Finding the starting lineups: I used Evolving-Hockey’s ShiftContinue reading “Building the game projection model”
Converting season projections to game Projections
Abstract: The goal in this article is to convert my projection model (Read more here and here) from season projections into game projections. From season projections to game projections: The model as it stands right now uses p-sGAA to project team strength. I want to convert that into Win%, which is the projected number ofContinue reading “Converting season projections to game Projections”
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