Here’s how the model compares to other public models: Here’s the log loss for each team: And here’s the log loss of each team compared to the imlplied odds: Game projections can be found daily on Twitter. All games will be updated here from time to time (Updated May 11th 2021).
Abstract: In the previous article I laid the groundwork for my game projection model. Now I will use the actual starting lineups and add in season adjustments using the ELO ranking principle. The data used in this article is from the 2016/2017 season to the 2019/2020 season. Finding the starting lineups: I used Evolving-Hockey’s ShiftContinue reading “Building the game projection model”
Abstract: The goal in this article is to convert my projection model (Read more here and here) from season projections into game projections. From season projections to game projections: The model as it stands right now uses p-sGAA to project team strength. I want to convert that into Win%, which is the projected number ofContinue reading “Converting season projections to game Projections”