Here’s how the model compares to other public models: Game projections can be found daily on Twitter. All games will be updated here from time to time (Updated February 21st 2021). The home ice advantage has been cut in half due to empty seats.
Abstract: In the previous article I laid the groundwork for my game projection model. Now I will use the actual starting lineups and add in season adjustments using the ELO ranking principle. The data used in this article is from the 2016/2017 season to the 2019/2020 season. Finding the starting lineups: I used Evolving-Hockey’s ShiftContinue reading “Building the game projection model”
Abstract: The goal in this article is to convert my projection model (Read more here and here) from season projections into game projections. From season projections to game projections: The model as it stands right now uses p-sGAA to project team strength. I want to convert that into Win%, which is the projected number ofContinue reading “Converting season projections to game Projections”