Game projection model – The Variables (Part I)

The goal with this series is to build a new game projection model. In this first article I will focus on the different variables/metrics. I want to test how well they predict future results. The old model But first a few comments on the old model. It was built on the basis of Evolving-Hockey’s GARContinue reading “Game projection model – The Variables (Part I)”

Evaluating the projection model

Abstract: The goal here is to compare my projection model (read more here and here) to other models out there. All of my projections below are made well after the games were played, so the true test of the model will be its performance this upcoming season. The model is the same for all tenContinue reading “Evaluating the projection model”

Projecting future results – Skater edition

Abstract: I have previously introduced the sGAA model (See here), which is primarily a descriptive model. Now I will introduce a predictive counterpart – projected sGAA or p-sGAA. It’s based on 3 years of weighted data. sGAA describes past performances while p-sGAA projects future performances. The projection model: The model is basically based on 3Continue reading “Projecting future results – Skater edition”